The web-zine is dead.

The zine is weak.

Content is dead on the Internet.

E-commerce is king.

If you believe the opinion-shapers/bullshitters that run our news media, these ideas should come as no surprise. The past several months have been filled with analysis and prediction that the end of independent web content is at hand.

I just finished reading an article on ZDNet which looks at the bleak future prospects facing the first generation of web-zines. For those of us who have been here for a while, the names are familiar. Suck, Word, Salon, Feed, Nerve. Their monosyllabic names recall the early days of the web--the high hopes of a global information community. For geeks like us back in 1995, these names meant innovation, wonder and promise. These e-zines were among the first-- an indicator of the web's awesome potential. The media loved them, and called them the future.

Nowadays, the popular buzz has moved away from online content, and towards bland portal sites like Disney's new GO Network. Investors have realized that the Internet is not some kind of magical wonderland--that hard work and financial resources and strategic partnerships are the keys to successful online ventures, just as they are to offline ventures. Some of us knew that all along. And they're much more selective about what they pursue. Makes sense.

But then somehow this "realization" got twisted. Suddenly we started reading articles telling us content is dead. I don't buy it. The media is always looking for something to write about, and occassionally discovers "trends" just because they need to. This is the kind of overanalysis that stifles all forms of creativity and progress--the idea that if it doesn't make money RIGHT NOW, then it will never make money and will never be worth doing. Just because some Wall Street investors decide that they don't want to invest in web magazines, doesn't mean that the concept of a webzine is invalid, or that a well-done content publication can't be successful on its own terms. But with all the doomspeak from our news media, it looks as if we might be witnessing a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In my opinion, it's the stuffy financial types that are missing out here. The web is great for commerce, but there's a limit to how much people are willing to buy online. Some people just enjoy the recreation of real-life shopping. So the huge boom in e-commerce is eventually going to find an equilibrium and will not go any higher. Content, however, has no limits to its reach or to its possible innovations. The beauty of the web is that you can access almost ANY KIND of information that you want, at any time, from any place. THIS IS CONTENT. And not just pure information like the Internet Movie Database or Yahoo's Stock Quotes, but opinion and humor and any kind of special interest that you may have. And it connects you to other people with the same interests. When a newbie first sits down at a search engine, they're not that excited to go buy some clothes at www.gap.com. They've been buying clothes all their lives. They want to find CONTENT. They go to the search engine and type the name of their favorite band, or visit the Star Wars web site. They look for content--information that they may not have known before, or other people's perspectives on an issue, or whatever. And they love it.

The people who are "analyzing" "web trends" seem to forget this. Think back to 1995. When the web was first introduced, what were people excited about? Web zines and personal homepages. The idea that someone could cheaply and professionally publish content to the entire world. The people who used the Web knew it, and everyone started to do it--everyone wanted their own personal homepage. THIS is our (as a society) first impulse. We can express ourselves to a potentially global audience. Expression. Content.

The Wall Street guys--who knew nothing about the web, and still don't really-- sensed our excitement, and got excited themselves. In their minds, when lots of people are excited about something, there's a crapload of money to be made. "Wow," they said. "Let's invest in these zines, and watch our money multiply." Well--they lacked the patience or the vision or the commitment, and they eventually gave up and hopped on the next bandwagon. Because they didn't immediately turn a profit, they started pulling out their money--and the world at large interprets this as "the end of content on the web".

HELLO?! Have we all forgotten the newbie looking up his favorite subjects on AltaVista? Have we forgotten that the first and strongest impulse of humanity is to use the web as a expressive outlet and information tool? The reason the web exploded in 94-95 was because suddenly we had these capabilities--a new medium was born. Like film or television or books or radio or magazine. All of these, over time, have integrated marketing and advertising into them, but the public really doesn't pay attention to that. It's accepted as a matter of fact. Ask Joe Schmoe, "What is radio?" He's not gonna say "It's a way for companies to promote their products by sending audio advertisements directly into the home." No--he'll tell you about music, and news and sports. Although advertising plays a huge role, radio is a CONTENT MEDIUM. People listen to radio for the music, not for the ads.

In the same way, once the excitement about e-commerce dies down, people will realize that content drives the web. The investors are making their quick bucks with e-commerce now, but soon there will be some new thing coming down the pipeline. And they'll scale back their investments in e-commerce. Will that mean that e-commerce is dead? No--it has its place, just as advertising has its place on radio. But the web is not some huge Home Shopping Channel. That was supposed to revolutionize shopping too, but who really pays any attention to the Home Shopping Channel anymore? Know why? They have no content. They're boring. But because the web is a people's medium, the web will never become boring. It will not become a huge store--because it will always provide content. Regardless of whether the bankers are behind it. That's the nature of the medium.

MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE REAL FUTURE OF THE WEBZINE:

--Content slowly but surely finds its footing, eventually becoming a cash cow for those who have been persistent in developing quality information and entertainment. As the first generation of webzines fades away, new ones will rise to fill the vacuum. In fact there is no alternative--as more and more people get on the web for the first time, the demand for content is even greater. People are either going to read established zines like Pop-Culture-Corn or homegrown stuff like Bob's Cool Movies Homepage. The point is--the people will always be reading what's out there--because that's what they really want.

--The merchandise sites eventually reach an equilbrium point, and the investors turn to the newest (and as-yet unknown) hot web trend. Just like is currently happening with web zines, a purging process occurs, where the best sites continue while the minor players or the less-committed disappear. The web starts to even out, and profit becomes more predictable and evenly spread.

--Web zines that have survived the purging process by slowly and steadily building an audience with quality content continue to do so. As they grow an audience, their visibility and credibility grow exponentially. Suddenly, the commercial world realizes that web publishing is not just a flash-in-the-pan, but that accurate and well-written content on the web provides healthy competition for traditional media. This new respect finally gives web publishers the long-sought advertising revenue. In the long term, e-media becomes the dominant form of news and entertainment, and traditional media become less important.

--Technology improves to the point where content providers can offer all kinds of cool multimedia. Web sites begin looking like glossy magazines, and shortly after that--like television programs. In the end the web sites suceed because they provide interactive features that neither print mags nor television can.

As our comrades fall around us, it only gives US less competition and more opportunities to be seized. While the rest of the world ignores the content providers now, one day they'll realize that they were wrong. Content IS king. And the web is the best medium for the message.